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Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process.

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Wikipedia About Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process.

Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data.

Time series methods

Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.

  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Extrapolation
  • Linear prediction
  • Trend estimation
  • Growth curve
  • Topics

Causal / econometric methods

Some forecasting methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. For example, sales of umbrellas might be associated with weather conditions. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast.

  • Regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression
  • Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
  • Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
e.g. Box-Jenkins
  • Econometrics

Judgmental methods

Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgements, opinions and probability estimates.

  • Composite forecasts
  • Surveys
  • Delphi method
  • Scenario building
  • Technology forecasting
  • Forecast by analogy

Other methods

  • Simulation
  • Prediction market
  • Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
  • Reference class forecasting

Forecasting accuracy

The forecast error is the difference between the actual value and the forecast value for the corresponding period.

\ E_t = Y_t - F_t

where E is the forecast error at period t, Y is the actual value at period t, and F is the forecast for period t.

Measures of aggregate error:

^{N} |E_t|}{N} |- |Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) |\ MAPE = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^N |\frac{E_t}{Y_t}|}{N} |- |Percent Mean Absolute Deviation (PMAD) |\ PMAD = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^{N} |E_t|}{\sum_{t=1}^{N} |Y_t|} |- |Mean squared error (MSE) |\ MSE = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^N {E_t^2}}{N} |- |Root Mean squared error (RMSE) |\ RMSE = \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{t=1}^N {E_t^2}}{N}} |}

Search results for Forecasting

USATODAY.com

USATODAY.com Latest News ... Understanding weather forecasting " ... The USA TODAY Weather Book, published in 1997, describes the basics of ensemble forecasting. ...www.usatoday.com/weather/wforcst0.htm

Forecasting

Types of Forecasting ... 4. Computer forecasting: Forecasters take their ... That's why when it comes to forecasting, machines can't do it alone; you always ...www.wxdude.com/page21.html

Forecasting - Teacher's Guide

Students have different forecasting tricks explained to them and are encouraged ... An online quiz is provided to review facts given in the Forecasting lesson. ...weathereye.kgan.com/cadet/forecast/teachers.html

Forecasting

This Science with NOAA Research K12 site provides learning experiences that center on Forecasting. ... Weather forecasting used to be thought of as witchcraft. ...www.oar.noaa.gov/k12/html/forecasting2.html

Time Series Analysis for Business Forecasting

... such as time series analysis for forecasting and other predictive techniques ... How to Do Forecasting by Regression Analysis. Predictions by Regression ...home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/stat-data/Forecast.htm

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News about Forecasting

Wild Dempster puts Cubs in early trouble

MSNBC This was no way for Ryan Dempster to back up his bold prediction. The man who turned heads by forecasting the Cubs would win the World Series went wild and failed to make it out of the fifth inning as the Los Angeles Dodgers beat Chicago 7-2 Wednesday in their NL playoff opener. http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/26983457/

Q: How do meteorologists decide which computer model to use in creating a forecast?

USA TodayA: Different computer models can and do show different forecast outcomes, based on the equations that are built into the respective models. Human forecasters, over time, learn which models tend to perform better in certain situations (some do better with snow, others do better in forecasting heavy rain events). These are called model biases and can vary depending on season and region. An ...http://blogs.usatoday.com/weather/2008/10/q-how-do-meteor.ht...

Report to Congress Forecasts Shortage of Marine Scientists

Kansas City InfoZineThe federal departments of Commerce and Education are forecasting a serious shortage of scientists trained to do the high-quality research required to rebuild fish stocks and restore marine species in the next decade.http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/3102...

Storm to hit Ridge Friday

Paradise PostThe National Weather Service is forecasting the first significant storm of the season for Northern California this Friday and Saturday, and Butte County officials encourage residents to be aware of possible debris flows, especially in the areas affected by the recent wild fires.http://www.paradisepost.com/ci_10618957

Data on Job Losses, U.S. Factory Orders Paint Bleak Picture

Washington PostU.S. factory orders sank by the largest amount in nearly two years in August and the number of workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a seven-year high last week, ominous signs that the economy is in sharp decline. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10...

News about Forecasting

Primagaz Implements ORTEC's Solution to Optimize Bottled Gas Product ...

ForbesThe solution integrates the forecasting of customers' consumption levels with the optimization of Primagaz' distribution process. Primagaz France services over 40,000 customers. Its 120 vehicle fleet delivers six different types of products ... http://www.forbes.com/businesswire/feeds/businesswire/2008/1...

Life After Bush: Forecasting Peace in Palestine

OhmyNewsPresident Bush sounded much less uncertain of his peace "vision" when he received Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas in Washington on Sept. 25. Certainly much has changed since the Nov. 2007 conference in Annapolis, Maryland, where Bush and his ... http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?at_...

Experts forecast at least quarter-point rate cut

Financial TimesIt’s the scale of the financial crisis and the severity of the downturn,” said Michael Saunders, an economist at Citi who is now forecasting a half-point cut this Thursday, having previously believed that inflation was too high to allow any cuts ... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2889f95a-9337-11dd-98b5-0000779fd18c...

Outlook roundup: SAP, Perficient

Boston GlobeDENVER (AP) -- Exide Technologies , a lead-acid battery manufacturer and recycler, on Monday released some preliminary financials for its fiscal second quarter, forecasting a 6 percent increase in sales. SANTA ANA, Calif. (AP) -- Memory chip maker Stec ... http://www.boston.com/business/technology/articles/2008/10/0...

The CEO Guide to Prediction Markets

BusinessWeekPrediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and forecasting future events. Prediction markets work like stock markets and can be used to forecast everything from who will win the Super Bowl to the ... http://www.businessweek.com/mediacenter/podcasts/guide_to_te...

Search results for Forecasting

Forecasting - Teacher's Guide

Forecasting is an interactive lesson about weather forecasting. Students have different forecasting tricks explained to them and are encouraged to try these tricks on their own ... http://weathereye.kgan.com/cadet/forecast/teachers.html

Forecasting - The Introduction

Weather forecasting is a prediction of what the weather will be like in an hour, tomorrow, or next week. The people who study the weather and make forecasts are called ... http://weathereye.kgan.com/cadet/forecast/index.html

Weather Forecasting: online meteorology guide

Looks at different forecasting methods, and how to predict temperature and precipitation.http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fcst/home.rxml

Creative Forecasting - Home

Creative Forecasting ® Creative Forecasting ® is a 56-page monthly magazine for Activity and Recreation Professionals working in long term ... http://www.creativeforecasting.net/

Weather forecasting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting
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Apotheker Says SAP to Cut Jobs, Avoid Forecasting SalesLeo Apotheker, co-Chief Executive Officer of SAP AG, talks with Bloomberg's Rishaad Salamat about job-cut plans and the impact of the economic slump.Windows Media - Video

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Answers for Forecasting

candyjgurl20What is the difference between the budgeting process and the financial forecasting process?candyjgurl20A budget is (usually) an exercise to create the initial, static, expected financial results for the time period, usually the 12 month fiscal year. A financial forcast is performed post budget and t...Susan Gforecasting?Susan GWell, since e)Restaurant, shows the same, that's a safe bet I think, but what Restaurant? Right now, Invest in silver, or put the $$$ under the mattress and wait for better times. Also, research...haemogrilWhat are three lessons learned relative to the importance and effectiveness of forecasting market?haemogrilIt all depends on your target market. If you have a product or service you selling. You have to target that market. If you some weight loss pills or something. You target weight loss. The tools you...BlackHawkI want to do forecasting of volumes for a transaction processing business, how and what tool can i use?BlackHawkNot sure how detailed the volumes forecast has to be. I have created a few models in Excel and have also purchased a modeling tool. The tool parameters depend on what industry you're in, and wha...boinkbatoinkIs there a projection/forecasting method without using historical data? If so, what method is that?boinkbatoink
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